The Elephant Not in the Room

Sun Tzu, who wrote The Art of War advised that is wise to keep your friends and enemies close, because these are people it is important to know and understand.  So, I watched the first Republican debate.

First of all, it was a bit awkward, that the combined poll popularity of the eight people on the stage didn’t equal the 52.2% polling numbers of the person who the moderator called, “The Elephant Not in the room,” the man who will be taking a perp walk at the Fulton County Jail sometime today, Donald Trump.

It was obvious when the crowd practically booed Chris Christie off the stage for anti-Trump remarks, that the audience reflected this strong hold that Donald Trump still has on the Republican Party despite the multiple indictments against him in both State and Federal Courts.  They think that the government’s case against their superstar is all politically motivated, with no evidence to back it up.  (This, despite the fact that Donald Trump’s lawyers want to postpone the trial until 2026, just so that they will have enough time to go over the mountain of evidence that the government will present in court.)

After the debaters were reminded that they had all taken a pledge to support whoever won the Republican nomination, they were asked, by a show of hands, if they would support Donald Trump if he was the nominee.  Most, quickly raised their hands in the affirmative.  Further proof of Trump’s firm grip on 52.2% of the Party.  Like the song says, it’s all about that Base, about that Base, about that Base.

So, why were the eight debaters there?  They know that despite his popularity with the Party, there is still a chance that Donald Trump, who faces a RICO charge with a minimum sentence of 5 years in jail, might not be legally allowed to run for the Presidency.  They all know that this is the only way that any one of them can get the nomination.  For one of them to win, Donald Trump must be out of the competition.  That’s why they were there?  They believe that might happen.

So, while they wait for the Elephant not in the room to stumble and fall, the best thing they can do is to elevate their standings in the polls.  They want to be the person who will inherit the win if the favorite is disqualified.  Currently, their race is for second place.

The position is currently held by Ron DeSantis, who is polling at 14.5%.  “In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king,” so despite his low polling numbers he got center stage because his numbers were higher than everyone else there.  I don’t think he did anything to hurt or help himself, so I don’t expect his numbers to change significantly.

Vivek Ramaswamy, by virtue of his 8.9% polling numbers, was to his left.  To tell you the truth, this was the first time I ever saw this guy, so I was curious to see how he would perform.  He came out swinging, “I’m the only guy up here who isn’t bought and paid for by a Political Action committee.”  Or something like that.  I put it in quotes because it’s darn close to whatever he said.  So, immediately, the other 7 debaters attacked him, and he fought them all off.  The 38-year old businessman was quickly making himself known to the nation.  He won the first hour.

Former Vice-President Mike Pence with 4.2% was next.  Fortunately, no flies landed on him this time, but he was getting attacked by everyone else.  He held up well to the attacks and even landed a few good punches.  To me, he seemed like the most reasonable person there, until he announced Jesus as his running mate.

Tim Scott was next with 3.5% in the polls.  He’s a Black Republican Senator.  I don’t foresee the MAGA base getting behind him, and he didn’t really get in anything that would have swayed many people, either.  I don’t think his numbers will change much.

Next, was former U.N. Ambassador, former Governor of South Carolina, and the only woman candidate, Nikki Haley.  She started off evenly and the first hour of the debate did nothing to help or hurt herself, as she let the boys beat on each other for the hour in their own little Royal Rumble.  In the second hour, though, she came out with fresh legs.  (No Pants Suit intended.)  She went after Ramaswarmy, and had him on the ropes.  When he tried to fight back, she landed a volley of strong punches.  He wound up taking a standing eight count, and never got back into the fight.  I scored it a TKO for Nikki.

Next, with a meager 3.3% of the polling, was the elephant who was in the room, former Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie.  He’s a big man with weight issues, so, I can empathize with him.  The crowd didn’t, though.  When he spoke ill of the “Elephant who’s not in the room,” the crowd almost booed him off the stage.  He didn’t flinch, though.  While he was being booed he said that they could boo him, but it didn’t make what he was saying not true.  He landed a few shots and took a few shots.  I think he did well, but was trying to work a very tough room.

Asa Hutchinson, with a paltry polling of 0.7% was next.  He took a strong stand against Donald Trump, and, while he earned my respect for that, he didn’t win any fans in the crowd.  So, I don’t see him lasting long in the race.  It’s all about the base, about the base, about the base.

The final debater was North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, who hobbled around with an injured foot.  He landed one joke.  He told the audience that the people back home wished him well and told him to break a leg.  He shouldn’t have taken that literally.

He’s from North Dakota, which has only 3 electoral votes, so, I don’t expect him to last long in the race, either.

Final score.  I think Ron Desantis held onto 2^nd place.  I think that Nikki Haley, Mike Pence and Chris Christie will move up slightly, while Ramaswamy, Scott, Hutchinson, and Burgum will lose ground.  They’re all just biding their time, though, just waiting for the circus to leave town and hoping that soon the elephant will go away.

It’s all about the base, about the base, about the base.

Peace & Love, and all of the above,

Earl