Does Anyone want to come out and play?

Grim Reaper

This guy might not be knocking on your door, but he is in the neighborhood, and he’s going door-to-door. Don’t let him in.

It’s understandable that after a month indoors most of us want to get back to normal, but Normal hopped on the last flight out of town, with on open-ended return ticket. By now, you and your family have probably played about as much Monopoly, Yahtzee, or Clue as your mind can take. Even video game players and TV watchers need a touch of reality once in a while. So, you’re probably eagerly anticipating a sign from the government that it’s over, and it’s safe to go back outside.

There is a lot of financial pressure to get the country moving again. Businesses will reopen, so that “the cure isn’t worse than the disease.” Democrats and Republicans want to show us that they are better at handling this crisis than the other guy. Grandparents want to hold their grandchildren. Parents want to get away from their children, and children now nostalgically long for the days when their parents would yell, “Go outside and play.”

If the economic, social, and political pressures force the country to “open up” again before there is a vaccine, it might be considered necessary, under the circumstances, but it won’t really be safe. If you can remain indoors, do so. If you must go out, do so as infrequently as possible and as safely as possible.

I think that a lot of people believe that the worst days are over. Unfortunately, I think we might someday be looking back on the past month as the “Good old days of Coronavirus.” Normally, I use an Excel spreadsheet program to help me gauge the speed (and bet-worthiness) of Harness Horses. Well, there’s no Harness Racing nowadays to occupy my mind, so I punched in the Covid-19 case and fatality numbers. Then, just like handicapping a race, I tried to predict where the numbers will go.

Currently there are 641,507 reported cases of Covid-19. It took almost 3 months (85 days) to go from 1 case to 641,507 cases. My computer predicts that this number will actually grow incredibly to over 1,000,000 cases in as short a time as a week. Until a few days ago, Heart Disease was the number one killer of Americans, killing 1774 a day. Covid-19 is now killing more than 2,000 Americans a day, and that number is still getting larger every day. Soon it will be killing as many people a day as Heart Disease and Cancer combined. This isn’t going away overnight, even if it is urgent to get the country back to work.

  • Heart disease: 647,457; 1774/day
  • Cancer: 599,108; 1641/day
  • Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936; 466/day
  • Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201; 439/day
  • Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383; 401/day
  • Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404; 333/day
  • Diabetes: 83,564; 229/day
  • Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672; 153/day
  • Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633; 139/day
  • Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173; 129/day

So, just know that when they sound the “all clear,” and urge people to get back to normal, it’s not really all clear, and normal will still be on vacation. Be safe.

Like they used to say in the squad room on the old Hill Street Blues TV show,

Let's be careful out there.

Peace & Love, and all of the above,

Earl